China's Humanoid Robot Boom Faces Reality Check as 150 Companies Chase a Market Where Only 23% of Buyers Are Satisfied
May 5, 2026 - 9:40 pm
TL;DR:
China dominates the global humanoid robot market, shipping 90% of units in 2025. With over 150 companies competing, Morgan Stanley predicts a 133% increase in deliveries this year to 28,000 units. However, only 23% of surveyed enterprises are satisfied with available products, whose battery life typically lasts just two to three hours.
China's Humanoid Robot Industry:
China boasts over 150 humanoid robot companies, producing roughly 90% of the world’s robots in 2025. Two leaders, Unitree and AgiBot, are poised for billion-dollar IPOs.
Morgan Stanley's Outlook:
Despite a projected surge in deliveries, Morgan Stanley found that only 23% of surveyed companies are satisfied with current humanoid robot offerings.
The Warning Signs:
In late 2025, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued a rare statement expressing concerns about:
- Redundant products and duplicated investment.
- A lack of genuine R&D due to an overabundance of companies.
The NDRC suggested a bubble was forming in the sector, backed by a one-trillion-yuan state fund designated as one of ten priority sectors.
Challenges Ahead:
While manufacturing infrastructure and component ecosystem are strong, revenue for humanoid robots remains insufficient to justify their lofty valuations.
Companies like Lingyi iTech, a Foxconn supplier, aim to produce 500,000 humanoid units by 2030, showcasing the growing commitment to this sector. However, the market needs to mature before these ambitious projections can be realized.