IMF Says AI Investment Is Keeping Global Growth Near 3%
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) states that spending on AI infrastructure is contributing to approximately 3% annual global economic growth, despite high energy prices. This was disclosed by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva during the start of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, as reported by Reuters.
Key Takeaways:
- Asian economies that produce AI hardware, such as Thailand, are experiencing the most significant benefits. Georgieva estimates that advanced Asian economies could see their growth increase by 0.5 to 1 percentage point, while emerging Asian economies might gain 0.2 to 0.8 points.
- Global AI hardware and related tech product trade now accounts for over one-tenth of global goods trade, with leading countries being Asia's suppliers of chips, chip-making equipment, and robots.
- Major tech companies are projected to spend between $660 billion and $690 billion on AI this year.
- The IMF expects a 3% growth rate for 2026.
Impact on Jobs:
Georgieva warned about the impact of AI on jobs, describing it as a "slow-moving tsunami" that will transform various sectors, including education and tax collection. According to the Fund, AI will eventually affect approximately 4 out of 10 jobs worldwide, with some roles improving while others become obsolete.
She noted that richer countries are most vulnerable, with about 60% of jobs potentially affected compared to 23% in poorer nations. Young individuals entering the job market are particularly at risk as their typical starting roles are disappearing.
Singapore's President Tharman Shanmugaratnam echoed these concerns and warned that if governments do not take action, AI could widen the gap between wealthy and developing countries in terms of growth and jobs.
World Bank's Approach:
Ajay Banga, the head of the World Bank, mentioned the Bank's support for small AI tools tailored for emerging markets, aiding farmers, health systems, and teachers.
The IMF has also identified risks associated with the AI boom, including the potential use of Mythos-class AI models to attack the financial system. The Fund will release its updated growth forecasts on Tuesday.