AI is Ending Older Workers’ Careers Early, and It’s Coming for the Well-Paid Ones First
New research finds that since ChatGPT launched, over-55s in AI-exposed jobs are leaving work more often, and landing in unemployment rather than retirement.
Key Findings:
- Increased Job Exits: Workers aged 55 and over in AI-exposed occupations are now exiting work at higher rates than before ChatGPT launched.
- Unemployment Impact: The increase shows up as unemployment, not retirement, meaning these people are out of work and still looking.
- Impact on Educated and Well-Paid Workers: Computer programmers saw an increase of more than 25%, while accountants and auditors rose about 22%. These workers are more likely to be white, more than twice as likely to hold a degree, and earn around $1,410 a week.
Research Methodology:
The study pairs US Current Population Survey data with an AI exposure index from Tufts University’s Digital Planet Initiative. The scores reveal which occupations are most affected by AI.
- Pre-ChatGPT vs Post-ChatGPT Comparison: The research compares the period before ChatGPT‘s November 2022 launch with the period after.
- Inversion of Exit Rates: Before ChatGPT, older workers in AI-exposed jobs were less likely to leave employment than their peers, but since the launch, that advantage has been largely wiped out.
Mechanisms of Change:
- Direct Replacement: Automation can simply replace workers, pushing them into unemployment or out of the labor force.
- Adopting New Technology: Pressure to adopt AI can drive people out as they choose to leave rather than learn a new system late in their career.
- Productivity and Wage Increases: Higher productivity from AI could raise wages and allow workers to focus on more engaging tasks, extending careers.
The adoption gap suggests that older workers are leaning towards leaving their jobs due to the introduction of AI technologies.