AI Won’t Restore an Era of Rapid Growth, Says Nobel laureate Christopher Pissarides
AI won’t haul Western economies back into an era of rapid productivity growth, with up to four in 10 jobs barely touched by the technology, according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Christopher Pissarides.
Key Takeaways:
- Scepticism on AI’s Impact: Pissarides, a specialist in automation’s impact on work, doubts AI will significantly boost productivity, especially in sectors like nursing and hospitality.
- Limited Productivity Growth: He foresees little sign of a productivity surge from AI comparable to the personal computing boom of the late 20th century.
- Uncertainty Over Future: The economist expresses doubt about high productivity growth rates predicted by figures like Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and OpenAI’s Sam Altman.
- Implication for Growth: Given sluggish output and narrow policy room, many are pinning hopes on AI reviving growth, which Pissarides finds implausible.
"There is up to 40%, or at least a big number of jobs in the UK… which are not exposed to AI so they are not going to get productivity gains because of AI." – Christopher Pissarides
"I think we should be resigned to the fact that the days of fast productivity growth are over, whatever we do." – Christopher Pissarides
This perspective contrasts with optimistic predictions from tech industry and policy circles regarding AI’s transformative potential.