Anthropic Reaches $1.2 Trillion Valuation, Surpassing OpenAI
Anthropic is now worth $1.2 trillion on paper. Almost nobody can buy in.
The Story Behind the Numbers
Anthropic’s shares are trading at an implied valuation of $1.2 trillion on secondary markets, surpassing OpenAI’s $908 billion valuation. This represents a staggering 550% increase within a year. Just three months ago, the same market valued Anthropic at $1 trillion.
A Scarcity-Driven Market
The unusual foundation of this valuation lies in scarcity rather than sales. Few investors can actually buy Anthropic shares, as there is a nearly total absence of sellers on secondary markets. This drives prices up with no new revenue or product to justify it.
"Anthropic is the most sought-after company the venture secondary market has ever seen," said Javier Avalos, chief executive of trading platform Caplight. Glen Anderson of Rainmaker Securities echoed this: "No one’s selling."
Unconventional Trading and Warnings
Some buyers have even offered to trade their homes for Anthropic stock, highlighting the demand that far surpasses supply. Most trades involve special-purpose vehicles (SPVs), which pool money from multiple buyers, a route Anthropic discourages and warns investors against.
Uncertainty Ahead of IPO
While interest in OpenAI has resurged with its GPT-5.6 models, brokers still see approximately five buyers for every two after OpenAI when it comes to Anthropic. The company filed confidentially for an IPO in June, expected to list within months, which will introduce more liquidity into the market.
What $1.2 Trillion Buys (and Doesn’t)
The current secondary valuations offer limited certainty, representing illiquid, minority stakes with no board seats or guaranteed exit. Even early investors like Matt Murphy of Menlo Ventures describe these as "noisy signals," despite strong revenue performance.