Anthropic’s Near-$2tn IPO: A Leap of Faith?
To justify a valuation that could reach nearly $2tn, Anthropic, an AI lab, is reportedly aiming for a significant revenue jump from approximately $47bn to around $200bn by 2028, according to a Reuters exclusive.
The Numbers at Play
- Projected Revenue: Between $190bn and $200bn in 2028.
- Second-Quarter 2026 Revenue: Anticipated to reach at least $10.9bn, more than doubling the previous quarter.
- First Quarterly Operating Profit: Targeting around $559m for 2026.
The Justification
Bankers and investors are utilizing enterprise-value-to-revenue multiples on these 2028 forecasts, a method less common in public markets but employed before the floatations of Cerebras and SpaceX. This approach values companies based on their projected future revenue rather than current earnings.
Comparison with Other Companies
- Palantir: Trades at roughly 53 times its expected 2026 revenue.
- SpaceX and Cloudflare: Sit around 41.6 times their expected 2026 revenue.
The Cautionary Note
The reliance on future projections carries a risk. The market’s enthusiasm today might not endure to meet the projected revenues, as David Merkel of Aleph Investments points out: "Could they get a $2 trillion valuation… I just wonder if it would stay there over time."
Another concern is the cost base—heavy spending on GPUs, compute, and model training—which could impact margins unless these costs decrease as the business scales.
The Rising Valuation Talk
The discussion about Anthropic’s valuation has been building for months. They’ve already attracted offers at an $800bn valuation and were reported to be aiming for a round that could value them closer to $900bn. Now, IPO chatter is suggesting a $2tn mark.
The Market Risk
The wider risk lies in the market’s fickleness. Cheaper rivals are challenging the economics behind these high valuations, and a two-years-forward multiple is only as reliable as the year it’s applied to.