Apollo Finds AI is Hitting Paychecks Rather Than Payrolls
Apollo’s chief economist Torsten Slok finds wage growth in high-exposure occupations fell 6.7% behind after 2023, with a 10.7% gap in the bottom quartile and none at the top (as of August 22, 2026 – 4:53 pm).
An Apollo analysis of 321 occupations revealed that wages in jobs highly exposed to AI grew 6.7% more slowly after 2023 than in low-exposure work. Employment in those occupations showed no statistically significant change.
The distribution of this gap is noteworthy:
- 10.7% in the bottom wage quartile
- 5.4% in the second quartile
- 4.0% in the third quartile
- No significant effect in the top quartile
Methodology: The authors matched occupations to labor statistics data from 2015 to 2025 using the Anthropic Economic Index, which measures AI usage based on actual model interactions. They acknowledge limitations, including a small sample size and potential biases in AI usage data.
Contrasting evidence exists:
- US statisticians found a slight decline in jobs across 18 exposed occupations while overall payrolls grew.
- Goldman Sachs reported faster declines in openings in fields vulnerable to AI substitution.
Alternative Perspectives:
Diane Gherson, formerly IBM’s chief human resources officer, suggests companies are downsizing through less visible means:
- Hiring fewer people into lower-wage roles with high turnover
- Bookkeeping severance as one-time charges while treating retraining costs as ongoing expenses
She points to Ikea’s example of retraining call center staff as interior design advisers as a positive case of AI-driven reskilling.
Slok’s broader argument: The economy is becoming more dynamic, with record levels of business formation. He acknowledges that the productivity benefits of AI remain unproven, as margins outside large tech companies have not increased.
While Apollo’s findings are specific to pay gaps in the US, the lack of similar studies in Europe highlights a potential blind spot in global labor data when it comes to AI’s impact on wages.