Barclays Says Humanoid Robots Can Offset 60% of China’s 37M Worker Shortfall by 2035
May 19, 2026 – 9:53 am
Image by: Humanoid
The British bank estimates that humanoid robots could offset as much as 60% of China’s projected labour-force decline by 2035, with the workforce shrinking by 37 million people over the next decade. This would require up to 24 million humanoids to be deployed.
Barclays’ research note suggests that China’s deployment of humanoid robots could significantly mitigate a substantial worker shortage. According to their forecasts, China’s working-age population is expected to decrease by 37 million over the next ten years, impacting roughly a quarter of the country’s economy.
The bank’s analysis requires up to 24 million humanoid robots to be introduced into the Chinese workforce by the mid-2030s to maintain effective output levels. This is equivalent to approximately 4% of China’s current labour force.
Key Points:
- China currently leads the global humanoid robot supply chain, with Unitree shipping roughly 5,500 units in 2025, followed by Agibot and UBTech.
- The bank’s estimate considers rapid cost declines in humanoid robots, government support for pilot programs, and sustained wage growth in eastern China.
- However, customer satisfaction with existing humanoids remains low, with only 23% of buyers reporting satisfaction, according to independent surveys.
This note presents a bold vision of the future, where robots play a significant role in mitigating labor shortages. But it also highlights challenges related to technology adoption and consumer acceptance.