BNP Predicts AI Borrowing Will End Credit Bull Market
BNP Paribas expects the years-long rally in corporate bonds to come to an end as technology companies, particularly hyperscalers, saturate the market with AI debt. According to Bloomberg, the bank’s analysts forecast $400 billion in hyperscaler bond sales next year, marking a significant shift from the previous "yieldy, defensive, and under-supplied" credit market.
The ECB’s Findings:
Just ten days ago, the European Central Bank (ECB) published its analysis of US tech issuing in euros, highlighting Amazon and Alphabet as the largest euro-area non-financial corporate issuers for 2026. The ECB noted that US tech accounts for nearly a tenth of new euro corporate issuance.
Record Fixed Income Supply:
BNP Paribas (learn more) predicts a record $3.7 trillion in net fixed income supply next year, with euro investment-grade spreads widening by six basis points and dollar spreads by seven. This oversupply is happening despite government bonds also being abundant.
European Borrowers Bear the Cost:
The concern for the ECB lies not in defaults but in crowding out other borrowers due to investors’ finite balance sheets. With hyperscalers planning substantial capital spending, European borrowers are facing increasing competition for financing.
Notable AI Debt Deal:
This year saw Europe’s largest AI debt raise: $830 million for Mistral, funded by seven lenders, including BNP Paribas. This amounts to just a fraction of the anticipated $400 billion in American AI borrowing next year.
A Shifting Landscape:
"We don’t doubt that we will be able to place [the bond]… it’s all a question of price," said Matthias Reschke from JPMorgan, reflecting the uncertain pricing environment for AI-related debt.
By Ana-Maria Stanciuc, Editor-in-Chief at TNW
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