Cathay Pacific and Google (find out more) Partner on AI Contrail Avoidance for Ultra-Long-Haul Flights
Cathay Pacific has collaborated with Google on a trial using AI to avoid contrails, resulting in significant reductions in the warming impact of ultra-long-haul flights.
Trial Details:
- Flights: Over 80 flights utilized altitude-adjusted routes.
- Impact: Achieved roughly a 40% reduction in contrail-related warming, according to Google's satellite analysis.
- Duration: The trial focused on flights exceeding 16 hours, with one corridor (Hong Kong to Singapore) contributing over half of the estimated reduction.
Methodology:
- Data Delivery: Predictions for route adjustments were delivered to pilots via Cathay’s electronic flight folder over in-flight Wi-Fi.
- Physics at Play: The strategy targets persistent contrails, which are responsible for a concentrated 80% of contrail warming.
- Fuel Considerations: While rerouting flights burns more fuel, Google's previous work suggests the additional cost is minimal compared to the avoided warming impact.
Previous Research:
- 2023 Study: A trial with American Airlines cut contrails by 54% at a fuel cost of approximately 2%, which reduced to 0.3% when spread across an airline's schedule.
- Transatlantic Trial (2025): 112 flights reported a 62% reduction in contrails with no significant fuel burn increase.
- Cost-Benefit: Google estimates the avoided warming is roughly 20 times the warming added by extra fuel, making it a cost-effective abatement strategy.
Global Regulation:
- EU Emission Trading System: Since January 2025, airlines in the EU have been required to monitor and report non-CO2 effects, including contrails.
- Operation Blue Skies: A £5m programme initiated by the European Commission to further structural changes in contrail management.