US Venture Capital Market: Megadeals and Market Dynamics
Megadeals Dominate US Venture Dollars
Megadeals accounting for 87.5% of US venture dollars in the first half of 2026, as per PitchBook’s Q2 US VC Valuations report. These rounds of $100 million or more are primarily driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI).
AI Premium in Valuations
- Median valuation step-up for AI companies: 2.2x compared to 1.6x for non-AI.
- Pre-money valuations for AI at Series A roughly double those of non-AI. By Series D and later, the comparison reaches 6.6x.
Velocity of Value Creation
Emily Zheng, a senior research analyst at PitchBook, highlighted the sharp increase in velocity:
Median velocity of value creation at Series D and beyond was $108.9m in 2025, reaching $1,028m this year—a near tenfold rise.
Secondary Market Pricing by Vintage
- Companies that last raised in 2026 trade on Forge with no discount at all.
- A significant drop is observed for companies that last raised in 2021, trading at a median discount of 59.1%.
- PitchBook attributes this to the lack of recent reference points and limited information rights in secondary trades.
Acquisitions: Not All Gloom
- Deal value reached $375.4 billion, a decade high.
- Median acquisition size doubled to $200 million.
- Notable acquisitions include SpaceX’s purchases of xAI for $250 billion and Cursor for all stock worth $60 billion.
The Dominant Exit Market: SpaceX
SpaceX’s remarkable rise and fall are reflected in the market:
- Went public, acquired xAI, and announced a massive acquisition, driving its valuation to $1.8 trillion in two years.
- However, shares have not held up, trading below IPO price.